ow can it be justified that the fair of a 40-foot container went from four thousand to 14 thousand dollars in less than a year? We are being affected by rising shipping costs, travel times and a shortage of containers. How did we get to this situation, which seems contradictory, it’s a mystery. In a period of lesser transactions, the offer of transport should be greater and prices lower.

Usually, ships have a lifespan of 40 years. After, maintenance costs outweigh the gains. The older they are, the more inefficient, fuel-consuming, and in need of more crew they are.

The trend is to make bigger and larger ships that are more efficient, much more automatic and operate with a reduced crew. The most recent reach 360 meters in length and carry around 380 tons of cargo. Another category, smaller to be able to transit through the Panama Canal, has less than 275 meters and carries around 100 tons.

The pandemic has completely changed the life of societies. The multiple confinements led to a significant reduction in transactions and transport needs. As the price of oil initially plummeted, smaller ships began to be used due to lower demand. However, when fuel prices recovered in the middle of last year, that advantage disappeared and the use of larger boats returned.

As the transport needs were lower, the cruising speed was reduced, which allows for fuel savings, and this was the main reason for the increase in transport time.

On the other hand, the pandemic forced successive controls in some ports: more wasted time. Cargo movements were also hampered by the lack employees in the docks, due to illness and confinement: a third reason for delays.

However, the dissimilar evolution of the pandemic between China and the West also affected the normal flow of cargoes, leaving empty containers on one side that were missing on the other. More delays and higher costs.

To make matters worse, China’s solution to keep its economy afloat and maintain jobs was to massively invest in infrastructure. That increased the demand for iron, which tripled in price at a time when shipping was down. The result was to send boats to scrap, and make some capital that would allow them to withstand the losses caused by the lack of activity, hoping to invest in larger and more efficient ships when the global economy recovered. Hundreds of large ships made their final voyage to Chittagong, Bangladesh, where this operation is less expensive.

As economies improve, the demand for transport has increased, but now there are no boats available. The lower cruise speed is here to stay, as the fuel benefits outweigh the personnel costs, and the pressure to reduce pollution is huge.

In the medium or long term, the trend will be for things to return to normal, and transport should even drop in price, with larger ships, smaller crews and more efficient engines. Unfortunately, experts think that before 2023 the situation will stay the same.